I defined this equation and graph a while ago, but it certainly hit home tonight. I made what I consider to be probably the largest and most embarrassing design error I have ever made. While the repercussions of the error were not all that significant, the simplicity of it makes it sting even more so. I managed to talk myself into making a very, VERY basic engineering mistake. In short, bending loads are a bitch.
I over thought myself. And when this happens, the following will always be true:
The equation utilizes the rule of pi (the fact that for any project the amount of time, effort and money required will always be 3.14159 times your initial expectations, while payoff will 3.14159 time less, with the chance of failure being 3.14159/amount of sleep in the past 24 hours) and a few constants and functions relating mostly to attempts to be clever.
Note that as time thinking increases, you reach an inversion point where the likelihood of failure increases and, initially, begins to oscillate randomly. This corresponds to that point in any project when we begin to rethink our design and try to be “clever.” Note that the chances of failure momentarily reach a negative failure. This is the epiphany moment. Every project has one, though it is brief and 99% of the time we will pass through this moment and never realize it until it’s too late.
So what did I do wrong in my case? I tried to be clever. I had a simple design, and decided that I could improve it. I realized that the loads were not ideal, but spent so much time thinking about it that I convinced myself it wouldn’t be an issue. Oh was I wrong. I knew deep down that there was a chance that it could all end poorly. Maybe that’s why I left a plan B to return all items to the original state.
I could come up with a long list of reasons why this isn’t all my fault, and things that should have been done differently. Some could have some merit. But in the end, I suggested the solution, built the product and realized the bending load, and allowed it to remain. And it cost a group of people a significant amount of valuable time on a very important project. While I certainly have egg on my face after this, it has reminded me of the importance of the engineering process and the fact that we can all make mistakes (and not to be so critical when other make those mistakes.) So long as we use these moments to learn and grow not all is lost.
And in conclusion, I leave you with the wise words of Pat Clarke: “The trick is, There is no trick!”


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